every prediction graded against its own falsifier · misses published, not hidden
“Public sentiment (GDELT tone, per country and per entity) is a leading indicator of real-world movement — it Granger-causes changes in defense/cyber stock prices and cross-domain activity.”
Not enough overlapping series to run the sweep.
Pairwise Granger causality across country-tone, entity-tone and stock-close series on stationarity-checked (ADF-tested, differenced) data; p-values Bonferroni-corrected across lags, then Benjamini-Hochberg FDR-corrected across the entire sweep. A pair only counts as significant at q < alpha. An earlier version of this sweep ranked raw F-statistics with no correction and "found" leading indicators everywhere; the corrected test is what we publish.
last evaluated 2026-10-16 00:20 UTC · 30-day window
Every hypothesis is recorded with a falsifier and a deadline when it is generated, then auto-graded against the graph when the deadline passes. Hit rate = confirmed / (confirmed + refuted); “unclear” grades are excluded from the rate but never deleted.
QILIN has stabilized on unknown as primary target (p=100%, 42.8 effective claims). Expect continued claims in this sector.
CONFIRMEDfalsifier: If next 7d shows no new unknown claims from QILIN, hypothesis fails.
grade: 2 new unknown victim(s) from qilin since claim
committed_adversary · confidence high · window 7d · created 2026-08-23 · graded 2026-09-04
Unknown is under coordinated multi-actor pressure: 23 groups already claiming (THEGENTLEMEN, QILIN, CLOP) AND the intent model independently predicts THEGENTLEMEN target the same sector next.
CONFIRMEDfalsifier: If next 7d shows no new Unknown-sector victims from THEGENTLEMEN, hypothesis weakens.
grade: 629 new Unknown victim(s) from predicted groups
convergence_meets_intent · confidence high · window 14d · created 2026-08-18 · graded 2026-09-04
Technology is under coordinated multi-actor pressure: 14 groups already claiming (CLOP, THEGENTLEMEN, QILIN) AND the intent model independently predicts CLOP target the same sector next.
REFUTEDfalsifier: If next 7d shows no new Technology-sector victims from CLOP, hypothesis weakens.
grade: no new Technology victims from clop
convergence_meets_intent · confidence high · window 14d · created 2026-08-12 · graded 2026-09-04
Other is under coordinated multi-actor pressure: 10 groups already claiming (THEGENTLEMEN, LYNX, KRYBIT) AND the intent model independently predicts KRYBIT target the same sector next.
CONFIRMEDfalsifier: If next 7d shows no new Other-sector victims from KRYBIT, hypothesis weakens.
grade: 917 new Other victim(s) from predicted groups
convergence_meets_intent · confidence high · window 14d · created 2026-08-10 · graded 2026-09-04
Storm level SEVERE (intensity 2.27) is plausibly driven by 'AliveCor, Inc.' (direwolf, claimed by direwolf · Healthcare).
CONFIRMEDfalsifier: If storm relaxes within 6h without this story propagating, attribution weakens.
grade: storm still elevated (0.92) — driver persisted
storm_driver_attribution · confidence high · window 1d · created 2026-08-10 · graded 2026-09-04
Manufacturing is under coordinated multi-actor pressure: 5 groups already claiming (QILIN, THEGENTLEMEN, PLAY) AND the intent model independently predicts THEGENTLEMEN, QILIN target the same sector next.
CONFIRMEDfalsifier: If next 7d shows no new Manufacturing-sector victims from THEGENTLEMEN, QILIN, hypothesis weakens.
grade: 938 new Manufacturing victim(s) from predicted groups
convergence_meets_intent · confidence high · window 14d · created 2026-08-10 · graded 2026-09-04
Not Found is under coordinated multi-actor pressure: 22 groups already claiming (DRAGONFORCE, THEGENTLEMEN, QILIN) AND the intent model independently predicts THEGENTLEMEN, GENESIS target the same sector next.
CONFIRMEDfalsifier: If next 7d shows no new Not Found-sector victims from THEGENTLEMEN, GENESIS, hypothesis weakens.
grade: 494 new Not Found victim(s) from predicted groups
convergence_meets_intent · confidence high · window 14d · created 2026-06-06 · graded 2026-06-28
Storm level WATCH (intensity 0.50) is plausibly driven by '‘She was phenomenal, she was iconic’: Delta Goodrem wins praise as Australia pla' (Guardian World, extreme tone +97.5).
CONFIRMEDfalsifier: If storm relaxes within 6h without this story propagating, attribution weakens.
grade: storm still elevated (0.81) — driver persisted
storm_driver_attribution · confidence medium · window 1d · created 2026-05-17 · graded 2026-05-19
Business Services is under coordinated multi-actor pressure: 16 groups already claiming (QILIN, AKIRA, SILENTRANSOMGROUP) AND the intent model independently predicts QILIN, AKIRA target the same sector next.
REFUTEDfalsifier: If next 7d shows no new Business Services-sector victims from QILIN, AKIRA, hypothesis weakens.
grade: no new Business Services victims from qilin, akira
convergence_meets_intent · confidence high · window 14d · created 2026-05-14 · graded 2026-06-03
This page contains no AI-generated text and no curated wins: it renders the raw grading ledger and the raw sweep statistics, refuted entries included.